{ "schemaVersion": 2, "analysisType": "Kaplan-Meier estimate of Japanese Wikipedia article creation after the first English revision, with an exploratory English-pageview demand proxy", "snapshotCutoff": "2026-07-15T00:00:00Z", "datasetSha256": "55a12c426f56aef692fc0f1802bfa1179460243c5875225ce6d66406255f02cc", "cohort": { "periodStart": "2016-01-01T00:00:00Z", "periodEndExclusive": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "rootClasses": { "Q7397": "software", "Q9143": "programming language", "Q188860": "software library", "Q271680": "software framework", "Q9135": "operating system" }, "canonicalClassPriority": [ "programming_language", "software_framework", "software_library", "operating_system", "other_software" ], "classMembershipCounts": { "Q188860": 7, "Q271680": 6, "Q7397": 111, "Q9135": 44, "Q9143": 11 }, "uniqueResolvedEnglishPages": 173, "duplicateResolvedEnglishPageRows": 3, "englishRedirectedRows": 8, "japaneseRedirectedRows": 3 }, "overall": { "n": 176, "observedJaArticles": 69, "rightCensored": 107, "snapshotJaAbsentRate": 0.607955, "jaOnOrBeforeEn": 12, "kmMedianDays": 4133.884, "kmMedianReached": true, "kmMedianAtRisk": 7, "kmMedianLowSupportWarning": true, "horizons": [ { "days": 30, "creationProbability": 0.130682, "ciLow": 0.088837, "ciHigh": 0.190077, "atRisk": 153 }, { "days": 90, "creationProbability": 0.136364, "ciLow": 0.093558, "ciHigh": 0.196519, "atRisk": 152 }, { "days": 180, "creationProbability": 0.159129, "ciLow": 0.112735, "ciHigh": 0.222084, "atRisk": 147 }, { "days": 365, "creationProbability": 0.230985, "ciLow": 0.174984, "ciHigh": 0.301362, "atRisk": 125 }, { "days": 730, "creationProbability": 0.288045, "ciLow": 0.225898, "ciHigh": 0.36287, "atRisk": 111 } ] }, "classes": [ { "id": "programming_language", "label": "プログラミング言語", "n": 11, "observedJaArticles": 4, "rightCensored": 7, "twoYearCreationProbability": 0.272727, "twoYearCiLow": 0.097167, "twoYearCiHigh": 0.629213, "smallSampleWarning": true }, { "id": "software_framework", "label": "ソフトウェアフレームワーク", "n": 6, "observedJaArticles": 4, "rightCensored": 2, "twoYearCreationProbability": 0.5, "twoYearCiLow": 0.196291, "twoYearCiHigh": 0.889052, "smallSampleWarning": true }, { "id": "software_library", "label": "ソフトウェアライブラリ", "n": 5, "observedJaArticles": 2, "rightCensored": 3, "twoYearCreationProbability": 0.25, "twoYearCiLow": 0.039451, "twoYearCiHigh": 0.872053, "smallSampleWarning": true }, { "id": "operating_system", "label": "オペレーティングシステム", "n": 44, "observedJaArticles": 35, "rightCensored": 9, "twoYearCreationProbability": 0.568182, "twoYearCiLow": 0.429289, "twoYearCiHigh": 0.715578, "smallSampleWarning": false }, { "id": "other_software", "label": "その他のソフトウェア", "n": 110, "observedJaArticles": 24, "rightCensored": 86, "twoYearCreationProbability": 0.162647, "twoYearCiLow": 0.104206, "twoYearCiHigh": 0.248989, "smallSampleWarning": false } ], "sensitivities": { "excludeJaOnOrBeforeEn": { "n": 164, "observedJaArticles": 57, "rightCensored": 107, "snapshotJaAbsentRate": 0.652439, "jaOnOrBeforeEn": 0, "kmMedianDays": 4133.884, "kmMedianReached": true, "kmMedianAtRisk": 7, "kmMedianLowSupportWarning": true, "horizons": [ { "days": 30, "creationProbability": 0.067073, "ciLow": 0.037715, "ciHigh": 0.11784, "atRisk": 153 }, { "days": 90, "creationProbability": 0.073171, "ciLow": 0.04223, "ciHigh": 0.12525, "atRisk": 152 }, { "days": 180, "creationProbability": 0.097602, "ciLow": 0.060965, "ciHigh": 0.154371, "atRisk": 147 }, { "days": 365, "creationProbability": 0.174715, "ciLow": 0.12402, "ciHigh": 0.243069, "atRisk": 125 }, { "days": 730, "creationProbability": 0.23595, "ciLow": 0.176766, "ciHigh": 0.310886, "atRisk": 111 } ] }, "singleDirectClassOnly": { "n": 173, "observedJaArticles": 68, "rightCensored": 105, "snapshotJaAbsentRate": 0.606936, "jaOnOrBeforeEn": 12, "kmMedianDays": 4133.884, "kmMedianReached": true, "kmMedianAtRisk": 7, "kmMedianLowSupportWarning": true, "horizons": [ { "days": 30, "creationProbability": 0.132948, "ciLow": 0.090414, "ciHigh": 0.193255, "atRisk": 150 }, { "days": 90, "creationProbability": 0.138728, "ciLow": 0.095221, "ciHigh": 0.199803, "atRisk": 149 }, { "days": 180, "creationProbability": 0.16189, "ciLow": 0.114745, "ciHigh": 0.225785, "atRisk": 144 }, { "days": 365, "creationProbability": 0.22923, "ciLow": 0.172981, "ciHigh": 0.300175, "atRisk": 123 }, { "days": 730, "creationProbability": 0.287379, "ciLow": 0.224768, "ciHigh": 0.36293, "atRisk": 109 } ] }, "atLeastTwoYearsPotentialFollowup": { "n": 157, "observedJaArticles": 66, "rightCensored": 91, "snapshotJaAbsentRate": 0.579618, "jaOnOrBeforeEn": 9, "kmMedianDays": 4133.884, "kmMedianReached": true, "kmMedianAtRisk": 7, "kmMedianLowSupportWarning": true, "horizons": [ { "days": 30, "creationProbability": 0.127389, "ciLow": 0.084131, "ciHigh": 0.190456, "atRisk": 137 }, { "days": 90, "creationProbability": 0.133758, "ciLow": 0.089342, "ciHigh": 0.19773, "atRisk": 136 }, { "days": 180, "creationProbability": 0.159236, "ciLow": 0.110539, "ciHigh": 0.226485, "atRisk": 132 }, { "days": 365, "creationProbability": 0.235669, "ciLow": 0.176782, "ciHigh": 0.310156, "atRisk": 120 }, { "days": 730, "creationProbability": 0.292994, "ciLow": 0.228426, "ciHigh": 0.37096, "atRisk": 111 } ] }, "excludeRedirectedSitelinks": { "n": 165, "observedJaArticles": 62, "rightCensored": 103, "snapshotJaAbsentRate": 0.624242, "jaOnOrBeforeEn": 9, "kmMedianDays": 4133.884, "kmMedianReached": true, "kmMedianAtRisk": 5, "kmMedianLowSupportWarning": true, "horizons": [ { "days": 30, "creationProbability": 0.121212, "ciLow": 0.079958, "ciHigh": 0.181548, "atRisk": 145 }, { "days": 90, "creationProbability": 0.127273, "ciLow": 0.084907, "ciHigh": 0.18849, "atRisk": 144 }, { "days": 180, "creationProbability": 0.151558, "ciLow": 0.105066, "ciHigh": 0.215997, "atRisk": 139 }, { "days": 365, "creationProbability": 0.228449, "ciLow": 0.171049, "ciHigh": 0.301319, "atRisk": 117 }, { "days": 730, "creationProbability": 0.289741, "ciLow": 0.225451, "ciHigh": 0.36756, "atRisk": 103 } ] }, "oneItemPerResolvedEnglishPage": { "n": 173, "observedJaArticles": 66, "rightCensored": 107, "snapshotJaAbsentRate": 0.618497, "jaOnOrBeforeEn": 12, "kmMedianDays": 4133.884, "kmMedianReached": true, "kmMedianAtRisk": 7, "kmMedianLowSupportWarning": true, "horizons": [ { "days": 30, "creationProbability": 0.132948, "ciLow": 0.090414, "ciHigh": 0.193255, "atRisk": 150 }, { "days": 90, "creationProbability": 0.138728, "ciLow": 0.095221, "ciHigh": 0.199803, "atRisk": 149 }, { "days": 180, "creationProbability": 0.16189, "ciLow": 0.114745, "ciHigh": 0.225785, "atRisk": 144 }, { "days": 365, "creationProbability": 0.235075, "ciLow": 0.17819, "ciHigh": 0.306449, "atRisk": 122 }, { "days": 730, "creationProbability": 0.293272, "ciLow": 0.230159, "ciHigh": 0.369107, "atRisk": 108 } ] } }, "pageviews": { "periodStart": "20250701", "periodEnd": "20260630", "agent": "all-agents", "uniqueEnglishPages": 173, "uniqueEnglishPageviews": 20321039, "noJapaneseSitelinkItems": 107, "noJapaneseSitelinkPageviews": 3596182, "topMissing": [ { "id": "Q94277753", "title": "Unreal Engine 5", "pageviews": 411989 }, { "id": "Q130305687", "title": "N8n", "pageviews": 256613 }, { "id": "Q123294077", "title": "Windows 10 editions", "pageviews": 200763 }, { "id": "Q27556059", "title": "Microsoft Dynamics 365", "pageviews": 164781 }, { "id": "Q62059755", "title": "Android 10", "pageviews": 152557 }, { "id": "Q85684089", "title": "Android 11", "pageviews": 134641 }, { "id": "Q54889403", "title": "List of built-in iOS apps", "pageviews": 123630 }, { "id": "Q136556923", "title": "Google AI Studio", "pageviews": 112658 }, { "id": "Q50364330", "title": "Android Pie", "pageviews": 112556 }, { "id": "Q105480642", "title": "Rosetta (software)", "pageviews": 98027 } ], "datasetPath": "evidence/data/enwiki-pageviews-2025-07_2026-06.jsonl.gz", "datasetSha256": "7297d0c3dac8cb4cd5195093c4b48460e4603f752802f43c7095b00d9a9b5b72", "explorerPath": "evidence/explorer-cohort.json", "explorerSha256": "80d35bdaf429f7b0816187c1d902b6da2a5306f06d658050699b77f54c80f28d", "explorerRowCount": 176 }, "interpretationGuardrails": [ "The clock starts at the first English Wikipedia revision, not at software release or adoption.", "A Japanese revision on or before the English revision is treated as an event at day zero.", "No Japanese revision by the snapshot cutoff is retained as right-censored.", "The estimates describe article-creation timing and do not measure translation, awareness, usage, or causality.", "Direct Wikidata P31 classes and date completeness can create selection bias.", "The long-horizon median is low-support when fewer than 10% of the cohort remain at risk; fixed-horizon estimates are primary.", "The pageview extension is exploratory, uses all-agents requests, can include automated traffic, and is not a direct measure of Japanese demand.", "A missing Japanese sitelink does not prove that Japanese-language information is absent; coverage may be merged into another article." ] }